Asimov's Foundation
In Isaac Asimov’s Foundation series, the theory used to predict the future is called Psychohistory. It is a fictional science that combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics.
Here is a breakdown of how it works, explained entirely in plain text:
The Concept of Statistical History
Asimov was inspired by the way gases behave in physics. If you look at a single molecule of gas, its movement is random and impossible to predict. However, if you have trillions of molecules, you can predict the behavior of the entire gas (its temperature and pressure) with perfect accuracy.
Psychohistory applies this same logic to humans. While you cannot predict what one person will do, Hari Seldon (the creator of the theory) discovered that you can mathematically predict what a galactic civilization will do, because the individual "random" actions of trillions of people eventually average out into a predictable flow.
The Two Golden Rules
For Psychohistory to remain accurate, two strict conditions must be met:
Massive Numbers: The population must be large enough to be treated statistically. It works for a galaxy of trillions, but it wouldn't work for a small city.
Ignorance of the Prediction: The people being predicted must remain unaware of the psychohistorical results. If a society knows its future is being calculated, its members will change their behavior based on that knowledge, which "breaks" the math.
The Seldon Plan and Crises
Using these equations, Hari Seldon mapped out the next 1,000 years of human history. He saw that the current Galactic Empire was decaying and would soon collapse, leading to 30,000 years of dark ages.
To shorten this period to just 1,000 years, he created the Foundation. He predicted specific moments called Seldon Crises—turning points where the Foundation would face a problem (like a war or an economic collapse) with only one viable solution. By forcing the population through these "bottlenecks," he ensured they would stay on the path toward a new, better empire.
The Chaos Factor: The Mule
The primary "villain" of the series, The Mule, represents the failure of the theory. He was a mutant with the power to reach into people's minds and force them to love or fear him.
Because the Mule was a unique biological accident, he was a "statistical outlier." Psychohistory only tracks social and economic trends of normal humans; it cannot account for a single individual who has the power to take over the galaxy through supernatural means. This is the moment in the books where the "predictable" future becomes chaotic and uncertain.
The Guardians of the Math
To fix the damage caused by unpredictable events like the Mule, Seldon created a secret Second Foundation. While the First Foundation focused on physical technology, the Second Foundation was made up of experts in psychology and mental powers. Their job was to act as "editors" of history, making small, secret adjustments to the galaxy to bring it back in line with Seldon's original mathematical equations.
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